Math poverty rates by Mexico states (estimated by Lee)

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In this page, I would like to estimate the current PISA math level scores by states of Mexico.

Highlight of this page:

  • As mentioned in the homepage of this USL Go Global website, for the CDMX and the northern Mexico states’ main big cities, the AI-induced unemployments will become far worse than the unemployments at the brief peak months of the COVID19 pandemic from around 2030 on.
  • Math average has been stagnating for the past a decade and gotten worse actually.
  • for the past a decade, math actually declined.
  • compared to Science, math average is about 10 points worse in 2018.
  • Since 2009, the math average has been declining.
  • You can see the estimated math average (at the PISA scale) of all Mexico states.
  • Lee estimated all the math poverty percent shares of all Mexico states.
  • Based on the current math poverty percent shares, Lee estimated the math poverty rate reductions if MMU 0.5, 0.7, and MMU1 is implemented in these Mexico states over the next 3-6 years.
  • As of now, the least math poverty rate is about 45% from DF (CDMX) and the worst may be Oaxaca, Chiapas with about 75-80% of the statewide math poverty rates.
  • What will be the economic and employment impacts of the MMU series over the next a few decades?
  • Separate from MMU projects is to end the basic English-speaking poverty over the next short years as well with the massive impacts to the tourism and the international commerce.

Source: OECD PISA (2003-2018)

How did I estimate the PISA math of Mexico. States by Science average score got worse by 9 points & the math scores average increased by 3 points, but it is about 9 points worse than the average Science scores for Mexico è So the estimated math (2018) would be about 15 points worse than the science scores of 2006 for Mexico (assuming that the national average scores were equally distributed all states).  

Source: https://blog.diegovalle.net/images/blogger_images/2.bp.blogspot.com__q3Caf3YFFAs_So7ULgKjYrI_AAAAAAAADRY_4WMI6c-dpWY_s1600-h_point-chart-pisa.png

How did I estimate the PISA math of Mexico? States by Science average score got worse by 9 points & the math scores average increased by 3 points, but it is about 9 points worse than the average Science scores for Mexico è So the estimated math (2018) would be about 15 points worse than the science scores of 2006 for Mexico (assuming that the national average scores were equally distributed all states).  

So if we readjust to raise all math scores by 5 points more using the PISA math 2018 as 409 that was 5 points higher than our last estimation: •Mexico City (DF)’s current math average is about 435. •Nuevo Leon math ~ 427. •Chihuahua ~ 411. •Mexico national math average ~ 409 (the real math in 2018 was 409; so 5 point higher than our estimation). •Puebla math ~ 393. •Chiapas ~ 363. •Oaxaca ~ 359.

The red dots are the estimated math scores of PISA by Mexico states (2018).

Source: by Dongchan Lee

In the above table of the MMU impacts to the math poverty reductions in the sample Mexico states, MMU 0.5 is roughly equivalent to boost the average math score increase by about 0.7 Standard Deviation as the scores are normally distributed or adjusted as such.

MMU 0.7 ~ math average rise of 1 Standard Deviation rise.

MMU 1 ~ math average rise of about 1.4 Standard Deviation.

The correspondences between the math average score rises vs. the math poverty percent share reductions are clearly visible in the top right linear correlation analysis graph.

Finally, I estimated the math poverty based on the PISA science scores by states in 2006.

Source: https://blog.diegovalle.net for the Mexico PISA science scores from 2006.

Now, let’s examine the math poverty reduction speed of Mexico compared to the rest of the Latin American countries and Mexico.

Math poverty % share of LACs PISA 15 years

Over the past 15 years till 2018, Mexico nationally reduced the math poverty by about 10% size (from about 65% to 55%).

But for the past 12 years, there is virtually no progress in the math poverty rate reduction.

So, even if we use the time block from 2003 to 2018 of the 15 year time frame to reduce the math poverty by about 10% less than before, to reduce by 25% (even if Mexico luckily manage to reduce the math poverty consistently although highly unlikely) from the current 55% to about 30% (which MMU 0.5 can bring in 3-6 years), it may take at least 38 years.

To achieve MMU 0.7 level of math poverty reduction, from 55% now to about 18% of math poverty (which is roughly among the top 5 math countries in EU), even if Mexico is super-lucky, it may take at least 53+ years.

The economic and employment impacts of the MMU series to Mexico in a few decades?

  • Without interventions of MMU series, by 2030, 2035, 2040, the new additional unemployments in the northern Mexico cities and DF will become initially 20-30% and then will rise to 40-50%. And will still get worse because the rising 4th industrial revolutions will require the fundamental basics of math which will be absolutely required for the basic science and technology. Realistically speaking by then, the northern Mexico will have still more than 40% of the math poverty rates if they are lucky. For the CDMX, if it is super-lucky, perhaps 35% of the math poverty. On the other hand, MMU series will shrink these math poverty to below 10-20% levels with the MMU 0.5-0.7 if the governments commit to the MMU causes.
  • real GDP per capita impacts of the MMU 0.5-0.7 alone to Mexico states over the next a few decades alone will be a few times richer Mexicans’ real GDP per capita. Without MMU interventions, this cannot happen. For example, for the past 35 years or more, the real GDP per capita (after absorbing the inflations) of Mexico has not increased at all; in other words, the current income wealth for the average Mexicans now is no better than almost 2 generations ago because the inflations took over the GDP per capita growths.

In conclusion, for the education, economy, and employments, without MMU, the northern Mexico and DF are basically doomed to collapse within 10-15 years.

Although this website is for the math and economy, I will end this page with a brief mention of SEF (Speak English Fast) project by Lee.

Currently, the basic English-speaking poverty of Mexico may be about 5-7% based on the national data about 7-8 years ago. In the northen states close to the USA borders may have about 20-35%. In CDMX, perhaps 10-20%. English-speaking is not just another language. It is basically a money language and the tourism or commerce language with the huge economic impacts.

Lee can teach math currently in 5 languages and he is capable of adding another 5+ languages within 5 days if he wants to because he tends to learn to speak new languages super-fast. For the western European languages, he needs less than half a day to speak another languages at least the basic survival levels to teach math. SESF’s web link is here. www.speakenglishsuperfast.com

For CDMX and the northern state cities may need to consider SEF as well.

For the SEF operations, the ministry of economy, commerce, and tourism may need to collaborate together.

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